Where the numbers come from, and what is published, calculated or assumed.
Market inputs come from official Indian government sources. Everything else is our own estimate built
on top of them. Nothing here is a live meter.
Sources
PPAC — Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas
PIB — Press Information Bureau, Government of India
CCEA — Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs
NITI Aayog — national ethanol blending roadmap
ARAI — Automotive Research Association of India
RBI — Reserve Bank of India
Where sources disagree, the government source wins.
What is what
PUBLISHEDFuel prices, crude prices, petrol consumption, tax rates,
ethanol prices, blending levels, energy content and the exchange rate — taken as published.
CALCULATEDThe import value of displaced petrol, the ethanol bill,
forgone tax, the energy drivers lose, the net position, and the running totals since launch.
ASSUMEDThe conversion from crude to a finished-petrol value, monthly
ethanol volumes (official figures are published per year, not per month), Delhi prices standing in
for the country, maintenance costs, and the mileage loss you pick on the calculator.
The monthly ledger is the record — a month appears only once every input for it is published.
The counters are a projection from the last verified month, which is why they move.
We value the import saving using the assumption that flatters the programme, and months still show a
net cost.
Not counted
State revenue, refining and marketing margins, and the farmer-income and emissions sides of the
programme.